OPEC increased oil production in May as the group began implementing a series of accelerated output hikes led by Saudi Arabia, according to a Bloomberg survey. The 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised supply by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, bringing total output to 27.54 million bpd. Saudi Arabia accounted for roughly half of the increase.
The move follows OPEC and its allies’ surprising decision in early April to revive production at three times the initially planned rate—a strategy that briefly sent crude prices to a four-year low. Since then, Brent futures have partially recovered, trading near $65 a barrel in London on Tuesday.
Saudi Strategy: Punishing Overproducers and Regaining Market Share
Delegates suggest the production shift is part of a broader strategy by Riyadh to discipline non-compliant members and reclaim lost market share. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia pushed OPEC+ to approve a third major output hike despite resistance from some partners.
According to the survey, Saudi Arabia increased production by 110,000 bpd in May, reaching 9.08 million bpd. However, this was still below the full volume the kingdom was permitted to add under the agreement.
Mixed Compliance Among OPEC Members
Libya, exempt from OPEC+ quotas due to ongoing recovery from years of conflict, contributed the next-largest increase, adding 50,000 bpd to reach 1.32 million bpd.
Meanwhile, Iraq maintained flat output at 4.18 million bpd—still well above its target—possibly to compensate for earlier overproduction. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) raised supply by just 10,000 bpd to 3.31 million bpd. While Bloomberg data suggests the UAE is exceeding its quota, OPEC’s internal reports indicate compliance.
*More Hikes Expected Ahead of July Meeting
Saudi Arabia has signaled it may push for additional monthly increases—set at 411,000 bpd for the group—to fully unwind production cuts by October. OPEC+ members, including Russia and Kazakhstan, will convene on July 6 to review output levels for August.
Survey Methodology:
Bloomberg’s production estimates are based on ship-tracking data, official reports, and analyst projections from Rapidan Energy Group, FGE, Kpler Ltd., and Rystad Energy.
Reference: Rigzones